New Zealand Log Prices - November 2012

Friday 30 Nov 2012

In-market log prices have been variable this month. Pruned logs have found further support in the Chinese market and as such have risen in price since last month, to be at US$186/JAS. A grade log prices have fallen by around 1% to US$130/JAS. This small change is inconsequential to demand in China, and now marks 7 months in which the price for A grade logs have traded within a US$3/JAS range.

Log exports are well supported and the volumes exported to China are steady, though many ports have been running down inventories and sit at around 1 month’s supply. At this rate prices are unsustainable and they will have to rise to offset this decline. New Zealand exports will receive support from better prices, though price rises may attract more competition from Pacific North-West exports to China, which have been declining of late.

After working through over-supply issues, Indian prices have risen to reach parity with other Asian markets. The risk is that it will once again be flooded by international logs looking to enter the market with favourable prices. South Korean exports are lower. K-grade logs have lowered in value, though the larger knotted KI grades have had a price rise of around 1%.

The log price indicator moved up one point to 83 this month. This has come on the back of movements in the North Island, as well as some increase in the South Island unpruned logs. North Island pruned log and unpruned log indicators moved up one point each. Most of the support for prices has come from movement in the export unpruned grades. Pruned price movements have also contributed to the shift.

The offshore market is well placed for upward price pressure moving into summer. With log inventories running lower in many ports, New Zealand is the only major supplier that has been increasing exports of logs to China. This means if inventories are lifted, New Zealand suppliers are in a position to move on prices.

North Island
  • Domestic: Pruned Grades are up
  • Export: Pruned grades are down, others are steady
South Island
  • Domestic: Pruned Grades are up
  • Export: Pruned grades are down, others are steady
For more detailed reports contact NZX Agrifax at www.nzxagri.com/agrifax

The Agrifax log price data is a weighted average of prices collected each month from a range of New Zealand log buyers and sellers. Log prices shown in the table will vary regionally and by supplier and should only be used to provide a broad trend of log price movements
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