Australian forest products sector under some pressureThursday 5 Apr 2012
Australia has had an increasing rate of softwood lumber imports: from 600,000 m3 in 2006–07 and 2008–09 (when the domestic market was stronger), and more recently to 847,000 m3 in 2010–11 when the overall market was weaker. Europe and New Zealand each represent about one-third of total imports. However, European volumes have been increasing steadily, while New Zealand’s are flat to declining — at a time when there has been a housing slowdown. In late 2011, The Australian Customs and Border Protection Service launched an anti-dumping investigation against softwood lumber imports from Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Sweden, Canada and the U.S. The preliminary ruling has shown no evidence of any dumping and has terminated its investigation. As WOOD MARKETS has reported over the years, Australia has had the highest structural lumber prices in the world since the late 1990s; this has attracted strategic exporters. More recently, Australian sawmills have had to overcome a significant currency disadvantage as the Australian dollar has soared against the U.S. dollar and the euro. This has made exports to Australia more attractive than shipping to regions facing low prices and flat markets. This has worked against Australian sawmills, as typical sawmills tend to have some of the highest sawmilling costs in the world (as reported in our Global Timber/Sawmill/Lumber Cost Benchmarking Report). In combination with rising log prices (due to export markets in China) and weak domestic demand, sawmills in Australia are seeing their margins squeezed against a tide of rising costs and imports. A similar situation is occurring in plywood and mouldings as Chilean imports become more common. The Australian softwood timber harvest was 9.5 million m3 in 2010–11. It is forecast to reach 12 million m3 by 2030 and then remain relatively flat to 2050. Softwood log exports rose to 1.8 million m3 in 2011 as domestic demand weakened, with 1.5 million m3 going to China. However, limited gains are expected from Australia’s domestic forests over the next few decades, and this will require the country to import significantly higher lumber and panel volumes to meet demand. Imported lumber is anticipated to grow from almost one million m3 in 2011 to 1.5 million m3 by 2030 and two million m3 by 2050. Domestic softwood lumber production is forecast to rise from four million m3 in 2011 to 4.5 million m3 in 2030, and then hold at that level to 2050 as the timber supply remains constrained. Source: International Wood Markets Group, www.woodmarkets.com . | ||
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