Global outlook for softwood lumberFriday 16 Dec 2011 Global softwood lumber/sawn wood demand bottomed out in 2009 at 250 million m3 and is projected to reach 275 million m3 in 2011, a gain of 3.8% over 2010. In 2012, the global outlook is for a more modest increase of about eight million m3, to 283 million m3 (+3.1%). The increase in softwood lumber demand in 2011 did not come from the developed countries, i.e., Europe will increase by less than 1% (versus 12.8% in 2010); the U.S. is expected to increase by 2.6% (versus 6.0% in 2010); and Canada will be lower by around 5% (after a gain of 12% in 2010).Other regions, such as Russia (+16%), Japan (+5%), China (+16%), other Asian countries, and some Middle East and North Africa countries, are all reporting much higher gains. The difference in lumber consumption between North America and Europe continues to favour Europe (excluding Russia) due to the impact of the housing-market collapse on U.S. lumber demand. As with consumption, global softwood lumber production experienced a cyclical peak in 2006, reaching 332 million m3 (141 billion bf, net, or about 210 billion bf if produced on a nominal dimension basis). By 2009, output had decreased to 260 million m3 (-22%; figures 3–5). For 2011, global sawn wood output is expected to show an increase of 10 million m3 from 2010 to achieve 288 million m3 (+3.6%), due mainly to growth in the first three quarters prior to a slowing of output. For 2012, a gain to 297 million m3 (+3.1%) is forecast given that most markets are not expected to see any sizeable gains until 2013 at the earliest, impacting output accordingly. Note that adjustments have been made to increase Russian lumber production and consumption to account for unreported volumes; see the 2011 UNECE market report for more details (Russell Taylor is coordinator of the report’s “Softwood Lumber” chapter). Source: International Wood Markets Group, www.woodmarkets.com  |
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