NZ’s log exports to China one-third of 2011 harvestFriday 11 Nov 2011 Log exports from New Zealand in 2011 are set to reach a new record high. During the first eight months, total shipments were 25 percent higher than the same period last year (54 percent higher by value) and total exports for 2011 may reach as high as 13 million m3, which is more than a doubling from just three years ago.It is worth noting that almost half of the timber harvest in the 2Q was shipped overseas in log form and that almost one-third of the timber harvest in New Zealand is shipped to Chinese sawmills. While log exports have increased substantially this year thanks to demand in China, lumber exports have actually declined from last year. The steady increase in log exports the past five years may very well continue in the coming 15 years as the theoretical harvest level in New Zealand is set to double to 55 million m3 by 2024. Most observers in the industry agree that, for a number of reasons, this timber harvest scenario is less likely. Depending on market conditions, a more realistic level of annual timber harvests in 15 years would be between 35 and 45 million m3 annually. Even this lower harvest outlook alternative would increase available log supply from the current levels by over 50 percent. Source: Wood Resources International LLC, www.woodprices.com
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