Global MDF capacity expandsFriday 11 Nov 2011 Global MDF capacity topped 80 million m3 in 2010 — an increase of 7.1 million m3 (+9.8%) over 2009. In 2010, China remained the world’s largest MDF-producing country at 37.3 million m3 — that’s 83% of Asia’s capacity and 47% of world capacity! Europe came in second at 20.3 million m3; MDF mills in “other Asia” produced 7.5 million m3; South America mills produced 6.5 million m3; and North America was at 5.0 million m3. The global outlook for 2011 calls for an increase of another 3.8 million m3. This will bring the global total to 83.8 million m3 and, subsequently, it is on track to reach 87.4 million m3 by 2013.In 2010, Asia’s MDF capacity of 44.9 million m3 was led by China at 37.3 million m3 — up 15% (+4.8 million m3) from 2009. In 2011, China’s MDF capacity is expected to have grown by an additional 10%, at which point stagnation will begin to show. At present, there is concern in China’s MDF industry that the growth rate of continuous presses exceeds that of production lines. MDF capacity market saturation, as well as available wood supply in China, are both of concern. In the future, the removal of uneconomic capacity in favour of new, more efficient continuous-press lines is expected to be the optimal way of moving forward. China’s is the world’s largest producer, importer, exporter and consumer of MDF. China’s MDF exports totaled US$695 million in value and 1.6 million m3 in volume during the first half of 2011. Also evident is a lack of new planned MDF capacity in China: only one million m3 is planned over the next three years, indicating that there is substantial capacity. Few producers are willing to bring on new MDF mills. The potential for excess MDF capacity in China also signals that MDF exports could begin to rise if there is too much domestic capacity relative to domestic demand (especially in the furniture sector). However, quality and emissions standards for panels must meet offshore countries’ requirements (such as CARB and European standards), and this will limit exports to more modern mills. The MDF trends in China could cause panel producers to diversify future growth away from MDF and expand more in particleboard, where there is a better domestic balance between supply and demand. In terms of new capacity in 2011, 2.4 million m3 are planned in four countries: Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia and China, with China accounting for over one million m3. For 2012 and beyond, a further 2.5 million m3 is on the books, almost all in South America and with one mill planned for Vietnam. This means there could be more than 87 million m3 of MDF capacity in 2013, indicating a significant slowdown from the torrid 40% annual growth pace witnessed between 1993 and 2010. Source: International Wood Markets Group, www.woodmarkets.com |
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