NZ Agri Focus: The bright side [NZ]Friday 12 Jun 2026
Despite everything happening overseas, New Zealand’s agriculture sector is doing incredibly well. Farmgate prices are at or very near record levels for beef, lamb, mutton, and wool. Milk, venison, kiwifruit, and apples aren’t too far behind. It’s all systems go for these sectors. Dairy prices have been strong for two seasons running, alongside great pasture conditions. The tail end of last season and the start of the new season look positive as well, despite robust milk production globally. Wine, forestry, and grains are conspicuously missing from the above upbeat paragraphs. Those sectors are still struggling to varying degrees with oversupply, low prices, and higher production costs. Other record or near-record prices unfortunately also include those for fertiliser and diesel, although global prices seem to have peaked. As things stand, the worst of the oil shock seems to be behind us, even though the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. But even if a resolution was to be found soon there will still be slow-rolling shockwaves washing up on rural New Zealand’s shores for at least the next year. Higher fuel and fertiliser prices, higher interest rates, and logistics challenges are the most pressing issues, alongside the general state of the New Zealand economy. Things remain volatile; if conflict reignites in the Middle East, all bets are off. And after taking a back seat for a few months as successful legal challenges forced a pause, US tariffs are back in the headlines. The US administration is pushing forward with its tariff agenda despite additional constraints imposed by February’s Supreme Court ruling. Adding to the unpredictable picture, a ‘super’ El Niño is expected to develop in the second half of 2026. This would likely bring hot and dry weather to eastern parts of New Zealand, which is typically negative for pasture growth. The New Zealand-India Free Trade Agreement was signed in late April and will hopefully enter into force in early 2027. Forestry, apples, and kiwifruit are the biggest winners from New Zealand’s agri sector. Source: ANZ  | ||
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