NZ industry update - July 2025Friday 25 Jul 2025
In Canterbury, at least, we have high enquiry levels from local Sawmills looking for more log and also wanting some different grades and price levels in the mix. It is excellent to be taking enquiry around pruned log, confirming strong demand in the appearance grade lumber sector. My spies tell me things are quieter in other regions. China is softening in terms of daily usage, now hovering close to 50,000 cubic metres compared to 60,000 last month. This drop is entirely expected, as the summer heatwaves ensure lower productivity and shorter days worked. Inventory has started to increase again, currently sitting at around 4.1m cubic meters, which is not particularly healthy. For readers who follow my report and review others, I am sometimes asked why, for example, I report inventory at 4.1mill m3 and others will be reporting a much lesser number. The difference is my numbers reflect all softwood logs across all ports. Others sometimes only report Radiata pine and some also exclude minor ports without explanation. Prices in the wholesale sector in China are weakening, confirming demand across the eastern seaboard is also weak. Movements have been slight thus far, but sufficient to ensure it is unlikely we will see the price of NZ logs landed in China increase in the near term. Most commentary suggests it with be mid/late Q3 (September) before autumn sales will pick up with any positive movements in prices likely to remain on hold until then. At the same time, the delivery rate of NZ logs to China has also declined, with winter, including heavy rain events, impacting productivity. Current log prices are at annualised lower levels also ensuring harvest of forests at some distance from ports remains subdued. The antics of the illustrious Donald Trump continue to impact trade, which again is likely to negatively impact demand and therefore pricing. It is great to see, despite the stupidities, wood fibre markets internationally are actually quite stable. It is also good to see an increasing number of Americans are realising their election foley which we can only hope leads to Donald’s reins continuing to be pulled in. For the moment, CFR prices (cost of log landed in US$ per m3) for NZ Logs in China are stable to rising slightly. Latest commentary suggests a general movement from US$110 to $113/114 per cubic metre A grade basis, with the quality of cargo and percentages of long lengths impacting final negotiations. It is looking like there will be 37 – 40 shipments from NZ in July, which is 5 to 6 less than normal. More >> Source & image credit: Laurie Forestry
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