NZ monthly market report - September 2026 [NZ]

Friday 2 Oct 2026

 
A recent commentator suggested the current China market was like a stagnant pond lacking life and vibrancy. The commentator may have a short memory, given 2 years ago the pond was more like the scene of a raging unpredictable storm resulting in severe waves of highs and lows. I much prefer stagnant!

Export log prices are just off the preferred pace making NZ forests greater than 100km to a port more challenging to yield good returns. But prices are stable. This remains an important feature of consistency and continuity which in turns creates efficiency and reduces costs.

As reported last month, China continues to print good manufacturing numbers. The PMI has continued to lift, as at early September sitting at 50.4, similar to June but up on July and August. Despite the illustrious DT’s best tariffs impositions, China exports are up. This is also despite massive storms and high temperatures internally. A weaker RMB against the Green Back is also helping exporters.

Some eye watering numbers out of China include industrial profits up close to 18% year on year with RMB4.58 trillion in earnings for the first 7 months this year to date. How is that working for you now Donald?

A recent visit to Queensland found box stores and building sites full of China made high quality LVL framing lumber, blowing Australia Sawmill owners out of the water with lumber prices well below what they can produce for. Recent protestations to the Australia Government by the sawmill fraternity have apparently fallen on deaf ears. One worries NZ’s turn could be just around the corner.

September settlements in China have been around the $130 per m3 mark, largely unchanged despite a couple of exporters pushing as high as $134. A lack of customer interest in those numbers quickly brought them to heel. Domestic prices in China have been increasing but the trading margin remains at a US$4 -5/m3 gap which is very close to about right.

Month to date usage numbers have been hovering around 55,000 to 60,000 m3 per day, again largely unchanged from August. Inventory is sitting at 2.4million m3, down 90,000 m3 from July. This is a low number compared to 2 years ago, but the market appears to remain comfortable at these levels.

More >>

Source & image credit: Laurie Forestry


Share |



Copyright 2004-2026 © Innovatek Ltd. All rights reserved.