The forests & bushfire conversation must stay grounded in evidenceFriday 17 Apr 2026
As someone working in the forest science space, I welcome both the scrutiny and the debate. Bushfire is a serious risk in Tasmania, and it is right that new research is examined carefully. At the same time, it is important that individual studies are interpreted accurately, and in the broader context of what we already know about fire, landscapes and a rapidly changing climate. The study analysed the 2019 Riveaux Rd bushfire in southern Tasmania, using detailed pre-and post-fire data to examine how fire behaved across a mixed-landscape of mature forest and regrowth following harvesting. Under the moderate fire weather conditions experienced during that event, regrowth forests burned, on average, at higher local severity than adjacent mature forests. That finding is not surprising, nor should it be dismissed. Forest scientists and land managers, including Sustainable Timber Tasmania, have long recognised that younger regrowth can contain denser lower canopies and more continuous “ladder fuels”, which can influence how fire moves vertically through a forest under certain conditions – acknowledging that reality is an important part of responsible forest management. One needs to be careful not to conflate this site-specific result with a general explanation for large bushfires. Crucially, the research does not support the claim that forestry causes megafires, nor that regrowth forests, in themselves, drive bushfire spread at the landscape scale. A substantial body of peerreviewed research, including work by Prof Bowman and colleagues, demonstrates that while some regrowth areas can experience higher fire severity under certain conditions, regrowth forests do not increase fire contagion, do not increase fire spread, and are not associated with elevated landscapescale bushfire risk, particularly where regrowth occurs as patches embedded within a broader matrix of mature forest. These most recent findings are consistent with Bowman et al’s 2022 analysis of the 2019-20 Black Summer fires, which concluded that extreme fire weather overwhelmingly overrides disturbance history, including harvesting, when large and severe bushfires occur. The Bowman study adds valuable insight into how forest structure can influence fire severity under particular conditions. But it does not support claims that forestry is the dominant driver of landscape-scale fire risk. It is acknowledged that all forest types, whether in production forest areas or reserves such as National Parks, are increasingly exposed to bushfire risk under a changing climate. For this reason, fire risk requires active, evidence-based management across the landscape, regardless of forest age or land use. More >> You can also listen to the interview Source & image credit: Sustainable Timber Tasmania (The Mercury) | ||
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