Middle Eastern conflict impact on global softwood trade

Friday 20 Mar 2026

 
Within weeks of the Iran-Israel-US conflict, the broader impact is already disrupting shipping, causing turmoil in oil and energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz is now closed, a crucial route that accounts for about 20% of global oil, nearly one-third of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and 2%-3% of the world's container traffic. A lot of shipping traffic has been stalled or rerouted, freight insurance premiums and war-risk surcharges are rising, and several carries have suspended operations in the region.

The outsized impact that oil prices have on the global economy means higher fuel and energy prices are all but guaranteed for many countries, not just those in the conflict region. The cost of a barrel of oil has topped $100 for the first time since 2022. And, according to Marko Summanen, Vice President, Forest Value Chain Europe at ResourceWise, European natural gas prices have jumped by €30/MWh in just two weeks, suppressing industrial demand for paper mills as production costs soar.

Timber markets rely heavily on long-distance maritime trade, and trade flows can shift quickly as a result of geopolitical disruptions or policy changes. In the past decade, those trade flows have been tested by the Covid pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent sanctions, the Red Sea crisis that began in October 2023, and US tariffs.

The Iran conflict could accelerate structural shifts that have the potential to reshape global timber trade flows in the future. It is the second conflict-driven logistics disruption in the Middle East in a little over two years. So perhaps one of the questions that will take some time to answer is whether the Middle East remains a stable import market for lumber.

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Source: ResourceWise


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