NZ March 2026 market updateFriday 20 Mar 2026
Summer also tends to be the season we now get significant storm damage. This is highlighted with the tragic slip at Mt Maunganui, the storm damage on the East Cape which created around 11,000 slips in one event and a recent windstorm that caused significant wind damage to forests in the Wanganui and Rangitikei districts. Let’s also not forget the two cyclone sisters, Hale and Gabrielle that wreaked havoc on the coast were both in summer. NZ’s summer camping holidays are becoming more of a dice roll than a craps table. So here we are heading into Autumn feeling a bit ripped off and then Trump decides to go all out on Iran. It’s no secret that the Iranian regime have been poking the grizzly for a while and we all know the Trump ego is one bear that doesn’t like to be poked. However, the adage that if you’re going to kick a tiger in the backside, you’d better have a good plan for its teeth has rung true for the Don with the Iranians shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. This hasn’t been ideal for world fuel prices with around 20% of global supply transiting the Strait. Oil prices have jumped around 30% and we’re looking down the barrel of plus $3/litre diesel in NZ if the Strait stays closed. Those of you that jumped into EV’s will be smarting as the rest of us have to forgo our morning latte in order afford to get to work. Industry, however, relies on diesel to keep the wheels of commerce turning and any significant increase will feed back to the consumer in one form or another. Unfortunately, the forest industry is a particularly fuel-heavy industry. Rule of thumb is that it takes around 4 litres of diesel to turn trees into logs and put them onto a log truck and, assuming a 100km cartage distance, another 2 litres to get them to the port or sawmill. If you take the current increase in fuel cost of around $1/litre, you’re looking at $6/tonne straight off the forest owners’ bottom line ($8/tonne if you’re 200km from markets) – thanks Don. Unfortunately, this scrap also affects bunker oil prices, meaning shipping costs are heading north also. It’s well known that shipping companies are like the four horsemen of the apocalypse and will take any opportunity to increase prices where they can. Current vessel offerings to China are up at least $US10/m3 on February numbers and some have settled as much as $US15/m3 up. India charters are eyewatering in comparison and many are throwing the boat in reverse and heading to different markets. More >> Source & image credit: Forest360 | ||
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