NZ Market Update - February 2026Friday 20 Feb 2026
This holiday, although great for the Chinese, generally triggers cold sweats from NZ foresters as sawmills shut up in China and production carries on with a full summer head of steam in NZ. Historically there is an in-market inventory build over this period to the tune of around a million cubic metres which swings the supply and demand dynamic well in favour of the buyers. This season is slightly different in that at the end of 2025, we had the lowest inventory in 24 months and although this has been building with buyers anticipating the closures, the current level is only 2.7 million. In addition, there is lower than usual vessel arrivals into China as weather delays have impacted vessel timing and it is expected that post holidays, the inventory position will only build to around 3.1 million cubic metres. Probably not the best news for buyers. Current buyer sentiment has started to swing towards the optimistic side of the pendulum, and while not quite at the fizzy stage, it is building. Exporters are expecting some sales price increases coming out of the holiday period although now is not the time to shoot for the moon. Shipping remains under $US30/cubic metre, however, any wins there have been offset by the weaker US dollar.  In terms of at wharf gate prices for February, it’s like Nana’s pavlova – flat. In fact, this 7-month run of flatness is the most stable period of pricing in over a decade, to the point that it’s almost predictable. Current A grade short prices are around the $123/JAS mark for SNI ports with fluctuations up and down a few dollars between exporters. While this level isn’t anything to write home about, it keeps the doors open and stability provides certainty. Meanwhile, back home things are starting to look rosier in the NZ construction sector. Certified Builder Chief Executive, Malcolm Fleming stated that employment contracts in the construction industry in January are up 20% from the same time on 2025. The 2025 National Construction Pipeline Report commissioned by MBIE has forecasted steady growth for the sector increasing turnover from $55.7bn in 2025 to $65.4bn in 2030. The number of new building consents grew 9% from December 2024 to December 2025 with a reasonable number of those not turning soil until 2026. As many forest owners took a hit in mid-2025 with reductions in both sawlog and pruned log prices due to poor demand, it is hoped that this increased activity will result in stronger log prices into the second quarter. More >> Source & image credit: Forest360  | ||
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