NZIF warns risks remain despite emissions plan amendment

NZIF warns risks remain despite emissions plan amendment

Friday 30 Jan 2026

The New Zealand Institute of Forestry (NZIF) says the Government’s January 2026 amendment to the Second Emissions Reduction Plan provides policy clarity, but shifts significant delivery risk into the second half of the decade.

The amendment confirms the Government will not proceed with on farm agricultural emissions pricing by 2030, relying instead on a market and technology led approach. While NZIF supports the development of practical mitigation tools for farmers, the updated projections make clear current settings increase uncertainty beyond 2030.

Updated modelling shows New Zealand remains on track to meet its first and second emissions budgets, with forestry removals continuing to play a critical role. However, projections also indicate New Zealand is off track for the third emissions budget and the 2030 biogenic methane target under current assumptions.

“Removing a policy lever without a fully proven replacement increases risk,” says NZIF President James Treadwell. “Technology led approaches can work, but only if adoption is rapid, widespread, and measurable. At present, much of the success of this approach is assumed rather than demonstrated.”

NZIF notes higher agricultural production and stock numbers are projected to offset a significant portion of expected emissions reductions from mitigation technologies. This places greater pressure on forestry removals and the wider ETS to carry the system, while long term signals for land use and investment remain uncertain.

“Forestry continues to act as the buffer in New Zealand’s emissions profile,” says Treadwell. “This role needs to be acknowledged honestly. If forestry is expected to underpin emissions budgets, policy settings must remain stable, credible, and investment ready.”

NZIF is concerned deferring difficult decisions increases the scale of action required in the next emissions reduction plan. Without clear incentives, regulatory backstops, or alternative pricing mechanisms, there is a risk emissions reductions are delayed.

NZIF calls on the Government to use the lead up to the third emissions reduction plan to:

demonstrate real world uptake of agricultural mitigation technologies,
provide clearer long term signals for land use and forestry investment,
maintain confidence in the ETS as New Zealand’s primary emissions management tool, and
avoid placing disproportionate reliance on forestry without addressing permanence, risk, and regional impacts

“Policy ambition must be matched by delivery,” says Treadwell. “The next few years will determine whether this approach genuinely reduces emissions, or simply postpones harder choices.”

Source: New Zealand Institute of Forestry (NZIF)

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