NZ July 2025 market updateFriday 18 Jul 2025
While many parts have seen massive rainfall during July, the Nelson and Tasman regions were absolutely pasted and had the unfortunate double whammy with a significant wind event. This, on top of super saturated soils, has created a severe windthrow event reminiscent of the Gabrielle event that flattened forests around the Taupo region. While it’s too early to give accurate estimates of the damage, early comments are that it’s chunky and likely around 4,000ha. What is important is that no matter how much wood is on the deck, it’s unlikely to have the same impact on increased export volumes as the Taupo salvage. There are a few reasons for this including topography, logging crew availability and port configuration. While the Taupo region was largely flat, Nelson/Tasman is steeper meaning more specialist machinery is required and that machinery is much harder to mobilise into the region due to the bit of water between the lslands. In addition, the Nelson Port can only load vessels on one berth which limits the throughput for export logs and hence the volume that can be put through the entire system. Deliveries into China from NZ have slowed in recent months as a result of winter and subdued prices and this is unlikely to pick up this side of summer – which currently seems as long way away. In-market inventories have been steadily reducing month on month since February and, even though Chinese uplift has reduced, inventories have continued to head south. What is important to note is that China is in its low season for construction and therefore demand is subdued, however we are still seeing reductions in the inventory position of around 60,000m3 per month. At the current rate we will see inventory into the sub 3.0 million m3 range by year-end, which is getting into pucker territory for buyers, and buyer pucker is good for sellers. The in-market sales price (CFR) has increased slightly from June into the $US111-113/m3 range, more due to the impact of the log futures market than real demand. Shipping has settled down after a slight flurry following the US and Israel’s set-to with Iran and FOREX continues to hover around the $US0.60 mark. Combined, this has led to a slight increase in At Wharf Gate (AWG) prices in NZ for July with A grade around $115/m3 in Southern North Island ports. This AWG spot price level is unlikely to see anyone want to hit the go button on a short-term harvest, however, as inventory reduces and summer approaches, we will probably see a historic price uptick from September onwards. More >> Source & image credit: Forest360 .jpg) | ||
Copyright 2004-2026 © Innovatek Ltd. All rights reserved. |
