Australian bushfires to worsen in future fire seasons
Friday 29 May 2020
Australia is experiencing longer fire seasons with more extreme fire danger days, the Bureau of Meteorology has told the bushfires royal commission. Large fires like the 2019-20 bushfires are occurring more frequently and fire weather will intensify into the future, its head of climate monitoring Dr Karl Braganza says.
"This isn't a one-off event that we're looking at here," he told the royal commission as its hearings began. He said since the 2003 Canberra fires, all states and territories had experienced significant fires that challenged the response and thinking about fire weather. "The frequency of these events, if we look at the historical record, seems to be increasing."
Research by the bureau and the CSIRO shows the fire danger is very likely to increase in the future for many regions of Australia, exacerbated by the increased occurrence of extreme heat. "These dangerous weather conditions for bushfires are likely to occur at least in part due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions," senior CSIRO scientist Dr Helen Cleugh said.
Southern Australia is also expected to continue to experience an increase in dangerous pyroconvection conditions, where fires burning in heavily forested areas generate their own weather and thunderstorms. "The risk of fire danger is both due to the long-term drying and warming, which is conditioning the landscape, but also the extreme fire weather that is observed partly due to climate change," Dr Cleugh said.
Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements chair Mark Binskin said coronavirus-related measures are further compounding the ongoing effects of the Black Summer bushfires for grieving communities. "The tragic loss of life, the destruction of homes, the significant loss of livestock and millions of hectares of forest has been devastating, and continues to deeply affect people and their recovery," he said.
Senior counsel assisting the commission Dominique Hogan-Doran SC said as a result of the pandemic, the recovery from the devastating impacts of the fires has been slow and fragmented. "Planning for future seasons appears to have been interrupted," she said.
Dr Braganza noted the outlook going into the next fire season was for wetter conditions for Australia compared with the past two years. "At this point, what we would be saying is your chances of getting the sort of season that you saw in 2018-19 and 2019-20 are reduced," he said. "...Beyond that, it's difficult to say except that the trends probably load the dice towards worse fire seasons in general."
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