Laurie Forestry NZ sector report - February 2026Friday 27 Feb 2026
In China, daily consumption and the total softwood inventory across the eastern seaboard are key market robustness indicators. Just prior to New Year holidays, daily consumption was ticking along at 55 – 58,000 cubic metres and most of that was NZ Radiata pine logs. Just to put that in to context, the timber created from 55,000 cubic metres of logs would be enough to build nearly 4,000 Kiwi houses and remember that is every day for 6 days a week (an average China work week in sawmills). Commentators have suggested sawmill owners were stocking up prior to the CNY holiday as they expected log prices to increase. It seems they were correct with most sales for March shipments looking at US$2 to $3 per m3 up. The upward movement is in part the consequence of inventory not hitting the expected numbers. As at early February, the total eastern seaboard inventory sat at around 2.4 million m3, down 180,000 m3 from mid-January. The combination of less vessels from NZ than expected in tandem with good usage rate and wallah, you have supply/demand 101 working as it should. Many regions in NZ are experiencing harvesting declines, which for many is a function of age class distribution. This in turn reflects less numbers of hectares planted 26 – 28 years ago. The Nelson region is an exception with wind damage recovery hitting its straps and likely to continue until Christmas this year. As stated last month, what happens when sawmills get in to full swing again in China 1stweek of March is going to impact our near-term future. Key manufacturing data coming out of China is generally just OK with BAU or slight contraction in some regions. The positive here is the market largely continues unabated despite President Trump’s tariff stupidities. Most commentators are suggesting a continuance of manufacturing strength citing some shift around in where things are made. Vietnam is a rapidly growing market, in some cases a tariff dodging strategy, in others a reflection of the lower cost of processing. In the latest news, break bulk log cargos are being investigated as an option for Vietnam but there are plenty of sceptics about that. Regardless, the demand for containerised logs is rising exponentially and that is all be good for NZ Forest growers. More >> Source & image credit: Laurie Forestry  | ||
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