NZ Log Market Summary

NZ Log Market Summary - July 2025

Friday 8 Aug 2025

July At Wharf Gate (AWG) prices for export logs remained largely unchanged from June prices. Although the CFR price for logs in China increased by approximately 3 USD per JASm³, this was offset by a weakening of the USD against the NZD. Consequently, July AWG prices rose by only 1 NZD per JASm³—a movement that was largely symbolic rather than financially material. At this stage, there is little indication of any significant change in AWG pricing for September.

Log demand in China has declined to around 50,000 m³ per day, a level typical during the peak of the Chinese summer when construction activity slows due to extreme heat. Softwood log inventories remain stable, with a modest month-on-month increase of approximately 4%. Demand from India has also softened as the country enters its monsoon season, further dampening market activity. Fortunately, reduced harvest volumes from New Zealand coincide with this lower demand, helping to maintain relative market balance.

In the domestic market, New Zealand sawmills continue to face pressure from rising operational costs. Carter Holt Harvey (CHH) has announced an upcoming price increase for structural sawn timber, effective from October.

The PF Olsen Log Price Index remains steady at $116. This is currently $2 below the two-year average and $4 below the four-year average.

Domestic Log Market

Carter Holt Harvey (CHH) has recently announced plans to implement a 5-7% increase in prices across its structural sawn timber range, effective from October 1. There is industry pushback, suggesting the added cost may derail ongoing projects causing a possible slow-down in home builds should costs not be able to be absorbed or mitigated. This price increase announced by CHH seems more of a ‘catch-up’ adjustment than a broader market upswing in sawn timber prices. Input cost increases in energy, freight and labour have not previously been passed on, as sellers compete in a difficult market.

Moody’s has revised its global outlook for the forest products sector from stable to negative, citing the combined impact of rising tariffs and weakening demand. This shift presents challenges for New Zealand’s export-reliant forestry sector, particularly in the pulp, panel, and sawn timber markets. Tariff increases in key markets have disrupted trade flows and added cost and complexity across the supply chain.

New Zealand exporters are facing tighter margins as raw material and freight costs climb, while some buyers reassess sourcing strategies amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Softening global demand is adding further pressure, with elevated interest rates and a slowdown in residential construction impacting log, timber, and panel product consumption. Moody’s forecasts a 2–4% drop in sales income across the global industry over the next 12–18 months, with discretionary and cyclical segments likely to be hit hardest.

Export Log Markets - China

CFR prices for A-grade logs are currently in the range of USD 113–117 per JASm³ for July vessel arrivals. Log demand in China has softened to around 50,000 m³ per day, driven by extremely high temperatures and adverse weather events. As a result, softwood log inventories have edged up slightly and now sit at approximately 2.7 million m³. Log supply from New Zealand continues to track below average due to ongoing wet weather and storm activity across the country.

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Source: PF Olsen

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