NZ monthly export report - June 2025Friday 27 Jun 2025
Importantly, this time of year is a time of normal cyclical lows. By comparison the export market price indicator, A grade, is the highest it has been, compared to the last 4 years. This then suggests there are likely to be better times ahead, ignoring of course the many current abnormal world factors that might impachttps://www.laurieforestry.co.nz/news/monthly-reports-june-2025/t the softwood fibre supply chain. An unhinged Donald Trump being of course one of them. There are some exciting things happening in the market as well as some useful statistics emerging about forests on the planet and just how well poised NZ is to capture the upside. NZ is on the cusp of a Free Trade Agreement with India. This would have two net impacts. Firstly, the dropping of the current tariff would add US$6 – 7 per m3 to the value of our Radiata pine logs. Secondly, a cuhttps://www.laurieforestry.co.nz/news/monthly-reports-june-2025/rrent supply source from Uruguay would not compete with NZ logs without tariffs, immediately adding 2 additional shipments per month of sales to this rapidly growing trade destination. Canada’s harvest, predominantly Lodgepole pine has shrunk from 90mil m3 pa to 35 mil in 5 years as a consequence of bark beetle infestation. Many sawmilling companies are relocating to the Pacific Northwest, harvesting and producing for the US market. This has seen PNW log exports to China slow to a trickle. European Spruce exports to China have slowed to less than 100,000 m3 of logs per month from 600,000m3. Commentary suggests even the current volumes will eventually cease as Germany, primarily, runs out of forest to harvest due to the same bark beetle that is eating its way through Canada forests. Spain, including the Basque Country, has lost in excess of 50,000 hectares of their softwood forest since 2018 due to pathogens, primarily Lecanosticata acicola. This pathogen poses a very real threat to NZ softwood forests, with our biosecurity settings undergoing a major review as a consequence. China has faced major challenges but is emerging as a much stronger economy than some of its critics have suggested. Indeed, China has just reported a Q1 trade surplus of $US165bil. Compare this with the US trade deficit Q1 – $US425.5bil. Sorry Donald, it isn’t working! China has been consistently using about 60,000 m3 per day of our wonderful Radiata pine logs when things were supposed to be dire. This then tells us there is a very real every day usage requirement, with its foundation being the China middle class population. More >> Source: Laurie Forestry | ||
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