NZ Log Market Report - January 2025Friday 31 Jan 2025
International factors would suggest we might be in for a rough ride as a nation. The new US President appears hell-bent on destroying his. Claiming to be focussed on cracking down on crime whilst releasing 1,000 criminals into out of order chaos and beating his chest openly taunting world leaders already at war does not bode well for calmness and serenity. The immediate impact of the emerging insanities has been positive for NZ exporters now enjoying a low US$ exchange rate and shipping rates also under downward pressure across break bulk and containers. Indeed, my FOREX managers have cautioned the illustrious Mr Trump was good for the NZ last time with similar strength in the Green Back built around protectionism measures. I have reminded them at the tender age of close to 80 sane people normally act their age and remove themselves from key decision-making roles. I have seen many times before, the international softwood log trade behaves abnormally to worldly pressures. Indeed, for NZ it is as much about what other nations are attempting to play in our supply sandpit. The scale of NZ operations is ensuring we enjoy lower shipping rates even compared to some like Australia who are much closer to China and India than we are. Another competitive advantage NZ enjoys is the smallness of our Islands, ensuring wood fibre is relatively handy to ports. We think we are hard done by when we get over 100km from a port. Uruguay forests are typically 1,000 – 2,000km to their ports and Australia 300 – 500km from theirs. Our Stevedoring business are also key players. Whilst Port costs are way too high, we are still very competitive on load rates compared to other supply nations. A long and sustained history in log exports has ensured we have skilled staff, good load rates and safe, continuous improvement practices. China celebrates their New Year at the end of January, meaning the market is effectively closed for 3 weeks. Erstwhile NZ loggers are enjoying better log prices, production levels have increased, and we expect China inventory to move quickly from 3mil to 4mil cubic metres. This is the direct consequence of arrivals from NZ. More >> Source: Laurie Forestry | ||
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