Steady as she goes forecast for Australian housingFriday 31 May 2013
In the Autumn 2013 edition of its National Outlook report, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) says it expects the number of new starts in residential construction to contract from an estimated 147,610 in 2012 to 147,390 in 2013 – the second lowest level on record in the past decade. While the HIA expects activity to bottom out this year, it expects only modest growth of 2.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent in 2014 and 2015 respectively meaning activity is expected to remain at historically low levels for some time. Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale says the sector is being held back by a combination of consumer caution and tight household credit on the demand side and tight credit conditions for residential development as well as ‘disproportionately high and inefficient taxation’ and ‘excessive regulation on new housing’ on the supply side. Outside of new housing, levels of investment in renovations of existing homes are expected to remain subdued by historic standards after dropping to ten year lows last year following several years of above normal activity levels. The negative housing outlook comes in spite of recent positive data regarding both new home sales and new housing finance – both of which have been trending upward in recent months. Source: DesignBuildSource | ||
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