Emissions windfall drops … by millionsFriday 24 May 2013
The figures come from analysis of New Zealand’s net emissions position for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, 2008 to 2012. In 2008, it was expected that New Zealand would face a 45 million tonne liability at the end of CP1, with an estimated cost of NZ$1 billion. That switched to a 9.6 million tonne surplus worth NZ$225 million when the figures were estimated in 2009. By 2011, officials were predicting a surplus of more than 25 million tonnes, expected to net the country up to NZ$444 million. But that revenue was based on a carbon price of up to $19 a tonne, which even then was out of date. Since then, revenue expectations have fallen on the back of tumbling carbon prices. However, New Zealand’s expected net emissions position has remained constant at around 35 million tonnes since the middle of last year. That is until now. The most recent figures available from the Ministry for the Environment show that between February and March this year, New Zealand’s net position fell from 35.2 million tonnes to 29.6 million tonnes. Using a carbon price of 9 cents a tonne, Treasury has said the surplus is now worth just NZ$3 million. Officials say that the drop is largely due to increased deforestation from a combination of very low carbon prices and favourable prices for dairy products. World carbon prices have fallen from NZ$13 per tonne CO2-e in late 2011 to NZ$0.19 per tonne in January 2013. This has made conversion of pre-1990 planted forest to other land uses more economically viable.” A survey by the Ministry for Primary Industries last year showed that forest owners intend to deforest 32,000 hectares of planted production forest over CP1, up from the intended 13,000 hectares reported at the end of 2011. Source: Carbon News 2013 | ||
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