NZ export log market updateFriday 26 Apr 2013  New Zealand exportsAt-Wharf-Gate (AWG) prices have risen by around 3-5% in the North Island in the last month, as the AWG price rises have been tempered by the rise in shipping rates and in the exchange rate. Prices for A-grade logs are up 5% in the Northern North Island and this is now a 37% rise year-on-year. Pruned logs are now up by 46% year-on-year, although the rise in pruned log prices occurred some months ago and have been mostly flat since July 2012. The value of export logs will now be nearing the record highs of mid-2011. A-grade logs are just $9/tonne less than the highest average price of NZ$120/tonne in April 2011 and the K-grade logs have kept a high value relative to the A-grade logs, just $1/tonne lower than the 2011 peak. Exports to China continue to trend upwards, with just under 1.3 million m³ exported in February. Exports to South Korea are also trending upwards with the 12 month average increasing month-on-month since September, aside from a lower month in February. Exports to India however still remain patchy and have varied from over 200,000m³ in November down to 57,000m³ in January. There was 71,180m³ exported to India in February, though the 12 month average is around 110,000m³. China China’s imports of New Zealand logs have been strong for the start of the year, with the rolling quarter total to February up by 40% year-on-year. In February a total of 412,100m³ of logs was imported into China from New Zealand, representing 30% of China’s total log imports for the month. February is typically the lowest month for imports to China due to the Chinese New Year. The percentage of China’s imports that is lumber has increased recently to around 35%. Logs are still the largest import but there has been an increasing trend away from logs since around 2008, when just10% of wood was going into China as lumber. The last significant log price rise in 2010/11 saw the lumber percentage lift from 26% to 32% as the higher value of wood was attracting the higher value lumber from the Pacific North West. It resulted in New Zealand’s supply of lumber decreasing from 7% of exports to 4%, as the higher prices for logs saw more supply diverted into log exports. It will be interesting to watch these figures to see the effect of the US lumber price rises and China’s log price rises. South Korea South Korean imports of New Zealand logs trended upwards at the start of 2013. Total shipments for the rolling quarter to February were up 11% year-on-year and only 1% below the previous quarter, despite the typically low February volumes. Total imports into South Korea are down by 3% in the same period year-on-year, due to huge drops in volume from the Pacific North West (PNW). Apart from two separate months where South Korea was flooded with logs from the PNW, overall, 2012 saw reduced volumes of wood from Canada and the US and the start of 2013 is continuing in this trend. The rolling quarter to February total import volumes were down by 24% year-on-year. Due to this, New Zealand’s market share for logs to South Korea has risen from 58% to 67% in the last year. Lately the South Korean won has followed the Japanese yen down which will be hurting log importers. The price pressure from China means that they will have to increase prices to match the currency falls. Source: www.nzxagri.co.nz/agrifax |
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