Changing markets for Swedish lumber exports
Friday 10 Nov 2023
Lumber trade has become more global over
the past few decades with an increased flow
of wood products from forest-rich countries to
regions lacking domestic forests to supply the
local markets. One good example is Sweden,
where lumber manufacturers in recent years
have expanded their sales far outside the
markets they supplied in the past.
Fifteen years
ago, almost 80% of the country’s lumber export
volume was shipped to markets in Europe. That
share has declined to about 55% in the past
years.
The biggest decline in market shares has
been in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, which fell from 28%
to 20% over the past ten years. During the
same period, the US market has increased in
importance, with the share rising from about
1% in 2013 to over 9% in 2Q/23. According to
Wood Resources International, this has been
a positive development for many Swedish
sawmills since the prices for lumber destined
for the US are substantially higher than for
wood sold to countries in Northern Africa and
the Middle East. In the 2Q/23, the average
export price for the US was almost 45% higher
than for lumber exported to Egypt, the largest
market in the MENA region.
Sweden exported 10% more lumber in the
first half of 2023 than during the same period
in 2022, and in 2023 is on track to be a record
year in shipments. The biggest increases
y-o-y were seen in sales to MENA followed
by Europe, while export volumes to the US
and Asia fell by 8% and 3%, respectively. The
strongest improvements to the top-10 markets
this year have been to China (+59% y-o-y),
the Netherlands (+49%), Egypt (+36%), France
(+17%), and the UK (+15%).
There is much uncertainty in worldwide demand
for lumber in the 2H/23. However, there are
signals of upward movements in prices in
the US market because of tighter supply and
slightly higher demand, which could be good
news for Swedish lumber exporters. During
the first six months of 2023, the US total import
volume was just over 17 million m3, the lowest
half-year import volume since the 1H/20.
Sweden’s share of this market has increased
from 1.9% in the 1H/21 to 3.3% in the 1H/23. In
2023, the leading European exporters to the US
were Germany (52% of the European supply),
Sweden (22%), Austria (7%), Romania (7%), and
the Czech Republic (3%). With the log supply
tightening in Central Europe, exports from this
region will likely decline in the coming year.
Source: Wood Resources International, info@WoodPrices.com
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