PF Olsen NZ Log Market Report – August 2023Saturday 9 Sep 2023
The PF Olsen Log Price Index increased $6 in August to $114. The index is currently $5 below the two-year and $8 below the five-year average. AWG prices increased an average of $15 due to the higher CFR sale prices in China. The positive impact of higher log prices was reduced slightly by increased shipping costs, while the exchange rate had little impact. CFR Log prices in China have increased but the market is still fragile. Inventory of New Zealand pine in China is stable and log demand is typical for this time of the year. Global pulp inventory levels are at record highs with very low demand. The domestic market remains subdued. Domestic Log Market Rising costs continue to cause significant issues in the construction industry. The Master Builders Association of NZ recently undertook a survey of 1,000 sector participants and 88% said that rising costs was their biggest problem. Many projects are being delayed due to uncertain budgets. New Zealand also tends to go into a holding pattern before a general election. Record high pulp inventory levels Total global chemical market pulp producer inventory volumes have reached a record high, with bleached softwood kraft (BSK), which includes paper grade and fluff pulp, more pronounced than bleached hardwood kraft (BHK). The (BHK) producer inventory volume reading is below the the historical peak in mid-2019, while BSK inventory volumes continue to set new record highs each month. This excess inventory is expected to persist as demand remains low and new supply enters the market. Export Log Market AWG prices China China radiata log inventory has remained at around 2.7 m3. Daily port off-take has reduced slightly but remains steady ranging between 60-70k m3 per day, which is in the normal range for this time of the year in China. Macro-economic indicators from China continue to worsen which indicates the demand for logs in China will not increase as it usually does when China enters its normally busiest construction time of the year. The China Caixin Manufacturing PMI continued to fall from 50.5 in June to 49.2 in July. Manufacturing conditions picked up for the second month in a row, but at slower levels then in May. Any PMI number above 50 signals manufacturing growth. This was its lowest reading in six months and the first drop in factory activity since April. New orders dropped after growing in the prior two months while foreign sales contracted the most since September 2022. Buying levels decreased for the first time since January. More >> Scott Downs, Director Sales & Marketing, PF Olsen Ltd Source: PF Olsen | ||
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