Friday Offcuts – 22 December 2011

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What a year 2011 has been! From revolution across the Arab world to natural disasters in Christchurch, Queensland and Japan, from the euro zone crisis to a tabloid phone hacking scandal, from the demise of Osama bin Laden to the Royal wedding and of course the All Blacks winning the Rugby World Cup. It really has been a remarkable year!

For the forest products industry, it appears the only constant for 2011 has been change. We’ve had seismic shifts in forest ownership, changes around the rules relating to land use, ground breaking agreements for the management – and protection - of Tasmanian native forests, new legislation for carbon trading, a long overdue rationalisation of industry associations, significant changes to R&D funding and delivery and an exchange rate that has set new highs – and lows - for exporters over the year.

Perhaps the most significant change to the forestry landscape over the last 12 months has been in forest ownership. Announcements have been made throughout the year. We tend to take it on board and then move on with our business. Collectively though, rationalisation and consolidation of Australasian forestry plantations has continued at a break neck pace since the MIS shake-up last year. So, just how big has the change been?

Institutional investors, largely US based forestry investment funds, have tended to dominate forests and associated land sales in 2011. The timber land assets of Great Southern Plantations sold for AU$415 million (the largest private forestry estate transaction seen in Australia at the time), Gunns softwood plantation estate (land and remaining trees) in the Green Triangle region, the Queensland Government’s plantation timber business, Forestry Plantations Queensland, Willmott Forests plantation assets and as reported last week, 46,000 ha of Tasmanian softwood forests have all been sold - or in the process of being sold. Sales have largely been to timberland investment management organizations (TIMOs) as well as a mix of local and offshore investors. The For Sale sign has also just gone up on the cutting rights to 81,000 ha of South Australia’s plantation forests.

To put this into perspective, over 370,000 ha (principally cutting rights) of plantation softwoods or over a third of Australia’s total softwood plantations has changed hands this year. Across the Tasman, in addition to several smaller parcels of forest blocks being sold to overseas interests, CHH sold more than 17,000 hectares of CNI forestry blocks to a US led group of investors. The ownership of production forests and make-up of the new owners in Australia – and to a lesser extent New Zealand - has shifted dramatically since the beginning of the year.

With the dramatic changes that have occurred this year I think we’re all now looking forward to 2012 with some optimism. Enjoy the break with your friends and family and we look forward to bringing you the very latest in news and coverage of key issues and technologies impacting on your business in the upcoming year. Our first issue for 2012 will be out on Friday 20 January.


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Russia finally joins WTO

The World Trade Organization has given its second and final approval for Russia's membership in the trade body after a record 18-year quest to join. The 153-nation global trade body approved by consensus Russia's application for membership last Friday, giving a boost to the ailing economy of its biggest trading partner, the European Union. Until now, Russia has been the only member of the Group of 20 leading economies still outside the WTO.

The Russian parliament will have up to June 15 next year to ratify the accord and bring it into force. Moscow's lead negotiator Maxim Medvedkov said earlier he expected the deal to be ratified "early next year". The deal is expected to quickly increase EU exports by some 4bn euros (US$5.45bn) a year.

For Finnish export companies, annual savings worth up to hundreds of millions of euros are expected as a consequence of the move. Timo Jaatinen, CEO of the Finnish Forest Industries Federation, estimates that the duties for softwood imported from Russia will be cut by about half. At the same time, the duties levied on hardwood will reduce by about three-quarters from the present level.

Assuming that the imports remain at the current level, the reduction in Russia’s export duties will bring the Finnish forest industry savings of approximately EUR 20 million, Jaatinen calculates. The exports of paper and paperboard will produce annual savings of about EUR 10 million.


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Class action likely against Sino Forest

One of Canada’s largest pension funds has joined a lawsuit seeking millions in compensation from Sino-Forest Corp., its management, directors, auditors and a slew of Bay Street firms that helped the scandal-plagued forestry firm raise capital from investors.

The British Columbia Investment Management Corp. (BCIMC), which has $90-billion in assets under management and is an agent of the provincial government, has joined a proposed class action lawsuit led by Toronto legal firm Kim Orr Barristers P.C. and Milberg LLP of New York City, according to documents filed with the Ontario Superior Court of Justice.

BCIMC is, by far, the largest single investor to commence legal action against Sino-Forest, which was once the most valuable forestry company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, boasting a market value of more than $6-billion before fraud allegations made by U.S. short-selling firm Muddy Waters caused the stock to collapse in July.

The BCIMC legal action caps a brutal week for Sino-Forest, which is now teetering on the brink of collapse. Last week, Sino-Forest warned it could not file its financial results and expects to be tipped into default by holders of its $1.8-billion in debt.

Sino-Forest’s largest shareholder, Singapore’s Richard Chandler Corp (Mr Chandler is a New Zealand investor), is demanding that the Sino-Forest board of directors resign and that the company’s new chief executive officer, Canadian Judson Martin, be sacked. Chandler and Sino-Forest’s second largest shareholder, Davis Advisors, are demanding that the company stop preserving cash and make a $10-million interest payment on its debt due 15 December. Source: the Globe and Mail

More related to this story:

Key Sino-Forest investor says replace CEO, directors

Sino-Forest’s largest shareholder 'disappointed'

Moody’s withdraws Sino-Forest rating


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Carbon-reinforcing technology showing real promise

Of interest to those supplying wood into the building and construction markets is the planned commercialisation in 2012 by Eden Energy of its concrete strengthening technology. Eden, through U.S. subsidiary Hythane Company, produces carbon nanotubes and nanofibers that can be added to concrete to increase its flexural strength.

Preliminary tests show that certain concrete formulations have increased flexural strength of between 15% and 30% after seven days. Increasing the flexural strength of concrete is a boon for the construction industry, allowing for reduced concrete beam dimensions and consequently thinner floors, reducing overall building height.

Eden has been researching concrete reinforced with its nano-carbon products for several months, with tests being carried out by the Hythane Company team in Colorado, as well as in India and Australia under industry and academic collaborations.

For full details on the story and link to the study, check out the latest R&D Works Newsletter


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New President and CEO of Innovativ Vision

On 1 December, Jonas Eklind took up his new role as President and CEO of Innovativ Vision AB in Linköping, Sweden. With its WoodEye timber scanner, Innovativ Vision is a leading supplier of systems for quality and production control within the wood manufacturing industry. Jonas Eklind was acting CEO of Innovativ Vision in 2009-2010 and has been CEO of various other international technology companies, some with a focus on process management. Jonas Eklind succeeds Mats Warstedt, who has left Innovativ Vision to head up a different company.




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Forestry and finance sectors meet in March 2012

Early next year FIEA is running the biennial conference series Future Forestry Finance 2102, which brings together the forestry and finance industries. The 2010 event was instrumental in building networks between these two groups and we expect the series in March 2012 to be just as valuable.

With input from a wide cross section of leading forestry and finance companies, the programme has now been released and you can also get a real deal with the early bird rates on-line RIGHT NOW.

Future Forestry Finance 2012 runs in Rotorua on 7-8 March and again in Sydney on 13-14 March 2012.
Click here for more information.



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NZ Forestry Exports rise 13.9%

The September 2011 quarter NZ Forestry Production and Trade Statistical Release is now available on MAF's website. The statistical release provides a comprehensive review of New Zealand's domestic production and overseas trade of forestry products on a quarterly basis. The full report can be found on the MAF website at www.maf.govt.nz.

Key highlights from the September 2011 quarter: (compared with the September 2011 quarter, unless otherwise stated)

- Total forestry export earnings increased NZ$32.7 million (3.0 percent) to NZ$1.1 billion in the September 2011 quarter. Export log earnings continue to be strong rising by $NZ77.2 million (25.8 percent) due to strong demand and high log prices, partially offset by a NZ$31.4 million (13.6 percent) fall in saw timber export earnings.

- China continues to dominate New Zealand’s log export market, with volumes rising 32.6 percent, to a record high of 2.2 million cubic metres since the series began in 1988. There are, however, indications in recent months that this demand is easing.

- Total roundwood removals were up 395 000 cubic metres (6.2 percent) to an estimated 6.8 million cubic metres this quarter.

- Sawn timber production fell 113 000 cubic metres over the quarter due to a combination of high log prices, weak domestic demand and a high exchange rate.

- The annual value of forestry exports increased 13.9 percent to NZ$4.6 billion over the year ending 30 September 2011, due to continued high demand for logs from China. Forestry accounted for 10.1 percent of total merchandise exports, compared with 10.0 percent in the year ending 30 September 2010.


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Christmas comments from FICA

For people in New Zealand’s forest industry it’s going to be a great Christmas break. Why the cheerful disposition amid global uncertainty and gathering Euro-storm clouds you ask? It’s simple – both 2010 and 2011 have been great export production years for our industry. Never before have we produced or exported so much wood in log form at such attractive prices. What’s more, with every year that passes the outlook and position for forestry and forest products gets better and better. China takes our logs by the shipload, Japanese customers who used to take logs now buy more value-added forest products from us – mostly processed here, and India is starting to take logs in much larger volumes than ever before. The challenge is to produce more valuable wood products for export in the future.

Forestry is really starting to fulfill its promised potential and beginning to earn its way for New Zealand Inc (the collective good) and especially for our rural communities. There is even better news set to come about export earnings, employment numbers and flow-through to rural economies. It’s coming from a positive collective energy among the key players who control the supply chain. Our industry is about to act on a combined industry strategy to be proactive in capturing and growing market share for wood in the near future. Contractors and wood processors alike are getting in behind it.

Apart from a slight dip in the year ending September 2008 annual log export earnings in the forest industry have grown from $400 million to over $1.6 billion. The success story behind the figures is that since the passing of the dominating and very large corporates - Fletcher Challenge and Carter Holt Harvey – there is now a will to be proactive among the many smaller players in key parts of the industry. Forestry is not limited by natural resources for future potential growth and industry expansion. Many hundreds of small forests planted in a boom starting in the late 1980’s are set to mature over the next decade.

One of the challenges for people who want to grow forestry’s contribution to our local and national economy is this: there is a need to add more value not just more volume to the products we produce. Through prior planning there is now potential prosperity for innovative new wood producers. Local developments in engineered wood products at Canterbury University and in cross-laminated timber in Nelson are likely to be great contributors to post-quake rebuilding of commercial buildings in Christchurch CBD and further afield.

Finally, as forestry exports continue to grow, people in the wider community will become aware of it’s potential as a customer, employer and business partner. As the owners of 1990’s forest generate wealth from their investments I predict there will plenty more willing landowners looking to plant marginal agriculture land which can earn carbon credits, recognising forestry’s environmental values, on its way to harvest maturity to make further social and economic contributions to the many rural communities that make up our fine country. Merry Christmas & Best Wishes for a Prosperous New Decade … from everyone in forestry!

John Stulen,Chief Executive, Forest Industry Contractors Association



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Slower Chinese economy expected until mid-2012

China’s conundrum with a lack of affordable housing and escalating property prices has seen as at November 2011, a 90% operating rate on 10 million affordable units. However, some question the operating rate quoted in Q3 of 2011 as at the end of Q1 there was only a 10.8% operating rate on these units. To meet this figure it is thought that many “starts” could be measured by simply breaking ground. By this reckoning there could still be plenty of potential for suppliers of materials to the building sector.

The Chinese Government’s effort to cool the property market has now meant that many local authorities are unable to fund affordable housing projects due to lower valued assets restricting leverage on loans, and fewer taxes being collected through development of more up-market housing.

It is expected that the Chinese economy will continue to cool off until the second quarter of 2012, this is a deliberate act by the Government to stem inflation in the rapidly growing economy. It was reported by some NZ exporters that last month wholesalers in China were discounting logs and selling below cost to move logs and stimulate cashflow, this has cleared some logs and is a boost for New Zealand exporters. The rate of increase in log imports into China is continuing to grow at a steady 30% year-on-year. Source: www.nzxagri.co.nz/agrifax


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Canada Withdraws from the Kyoto Convention

Canada has announced its intention to withdraw from the Kyoto treaty on greenhouse gas emissions (GGE), sandbagging the other signatories to the convention. The Kyoto protocol, initially adopted in Kyoto, Japan in 1997, was designed to combat global warming with the agreement allowing countries like China and India take voluntary, but non-binding steps to reduce their greenhouse gas carbon emissions.
International condemnation to the announcement has been swift. More >>


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Lego Christmas tree unveiled at London station

A Christmas tree that's ten metres high and made completely out of Lego bricks has been unveiled at St Pancras railway station. It took two months to build and contains 600,000 bricks.

There are more than 1,000 Lego baubles attacked to its 172 branches and according to Lego it is the tallest tree ever made using the toy building bricks.

Duncan Titmarsh from the professional Lego building company Bright Bricks created the concept. It's the tallest Christmas tree to be made entirely out of Lego.

Read more


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SA timber sale could fetch AU$600m

As the year comes to a close, things in South Australia are heating up. The sale of ForestrySA's forward cutting rights is looking to be a hotly contested process, with at least six North American buyers showing keen interest, The Australian Financial Review reports.

UBS and SA Treasury are just back from a 10-day North American tour where they were talking up the top quality forestry assets located in the "Green Triangle" region between SA and Victoria. According to the SA Forestry Corp annual report, standing timber was valued at more than AU$720 million as at 30 June. It is estimated that a deal might be struck between AU$500 million and AU$600 million.

Boston-based Hancock Timber Resource Group (which bought the rights in 1998 to log Victoria's plantations for 99 years) tops the possible buyer list. The group this week won clearance for a purchase from the competition watchdog, albeit with the state government committing to a few conditions of sale which would limit Hancock's ability to alter the quantity of timber supply and limit its ability to increase softwood timber prices in the Green Triangle.


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Easing Shipping rates a timely boost

The cost of shipping to China and Korea for forest products exporters is down 31% and 33% respectively year-on-year, with the biggest drop coming in the past month with a drop of US$6-8/JASm³. This somewhat buffers the pricedrop for logs of 14%-17% year-on-year. Source: www.nzxagri.co.nz/agrifax


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Japanese house construction changes in 2011

New residential housing starts have steadily eroded in Japan due to demographics and the real estate market, moving from 1.3 million in 2006 to only 788,000 in 2009 (-40%). In 2010, housing starts rebounded to 813,000 units. Now, with the rebuilding from the earthquake/tsunami, housing starts will likely be slightly higher in 2011, and closer to 850,000 units in 2012. Japanese imports of lumber have declined steadily — from a peak of 12.6 million m3 in 1997 to 5.8 million m3 in 2009 (-54%), but were higher in 2010 (6.6 million m3), with 2011 expected to be about 10% higher.

All major supplying regions (North America, Europe, Chile, New Zealand and Russia) have increased softwood lumber exports to Japan in 2011. The consensus seems to be that short-term demand for softwood lumber (and house construction) may not increase until after the wreckage of towns and cities is cleaned up and a rebuilding strategy is developed. Some of the initial increased demand for lumber was for temporary housing shelters in the three prefectures most affected by the earthquake/tsunami.

Source: International Wood Markets Group, www.woodmarkets.com


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Jobs



Buy and Sell



...and one to end the week on...Xmas

Christmas - and what other time of the year do you sit in front of a dead tree and eat candy out of your socks?"




And on that note, turn out the lights, close the door behind you and head home to spend Xmas with friends and family. Enjoy the break and we look forward to catching up with you next year.

Cheers.

Brent Apthorp
Editor, Friday Offcuts
PO Box 904
Level Two, 2 Dowling Street
Dunedin, New Zealand
Ph: +64 3 470 1902
Fax: +64 3 470 1904
Web page: www.fridayoffcuts.com


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