NZ log export update
Exports decreased to most major markets in July, with the biggest drop in exports to India. Indian exports dropped 65% to 40,000m³. Exports to China and South Korea were down by 26% on June levels. This, however, reflects a high volume exported in June rather than poor figures for July. Export log prices have risen throughout New Zealand, with the biggest gains being seen in prices for pruned logs. Export pruned log prices are currently higher than domestic prices.
China: Exports to China have fallen from June to July, after a record high in June of over 1 million m³. Chinese log imports overall increased in July, with large increases in logs imported from Canada and Russia. China has been showing signs of a soft landing in its construction industry. While imports and prices were down for the beginning of 2012 they are picking up again in the second half of the year and there has been no crash in the housing market. With China’s government putting restrictions on housing speculation, log prices won’t increase greatly. However, the Chinese government will protect the construction industry from any major slowdown to save jobs.
India: There was a major drop in exports to India from June to July. While Indian imports are expected to fall during monsoon season, the volume that New Zealand exported in July is the lowest since March 2009. This is due to a large amount of imports before the monsoon season leading to higher than normal inventory build-up. Once the monsoon season clears, there may still be backlog of inventory to work through before imports start to pick up again.
South Korea: New Zealand exports to South Korea fell by 26% in the month from June to July. The logs supply here has been strong from the Pacific North West for the last few months which has led to a larger market share being controlled by the US and Canada. While New Zealand had around 60% market share for most of 2011, this has fallen to closer to 50% since April and as low as 30% in June. While there has been a slight decrease in the total supply from New Zealand, this change has largely been caused by added supply from the US and Canada.
Japan: New Zealand exports to Japan increased in July after a poor month in August. The volume of logs exported to Japan is still a fraction of what it was in 2011, close to 20% lower than July last year, which was the lowest month of the year for exports of logs to Japan.
Copyright 2004-2013 © Innovatek Ltd. All rights reserved.